Whatās up, everyone?
The last one of these I wrote landed in your inbox on Feb. 28, 2020. That was just about eight months ago. We were all geared up for the womenās basketball teamās NCAA Tourney run, likely as a No. 2 seed. Mick McCall had recently been replaced. Things were looking up.
So, of course, 2020 had other plans. There was even a freakinā conspiracy theory that blamed phones for the coronavirus. I mean, cāmon.
Now itās late October, and weāre waiting for the first in a series of football games that, frankly, makes me feel uneasy. I havenāt watched much college football this fall. I just canāt really get myself to do it. I turned off a recent Florida-Texas A&M game in College Station as soon as I saw a wide shot of nearly 100,000 folks packed together in the stands. And no, I didnāt watch Clemsonās 73-7 dismantling of Georgia Tech last weekend either.
If you opened this newsletter hoping for a sports-only preview of the Northwestern football teamās game against Maryland on Saturday, youāre just simply not going to get that. As for what you will get, Iām still not totally sure myself ā¦ Iām referring both to this newsletter and whatās going to happen on the field.
Personally, itās not going to be easy watching football, knowing the potential dangers that initially delayed the Big Ten from even playing games to this point.
The Big Ten will be playing football games in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, and Illinois this weekend.
Five of those six states have seen a 10-50% increase in COVID-19 cases during the past week vs. the previous week, according to CNN.
Visiting teams will be traveling from Illinois, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, and Maryland.
Five of those seven states have seen a 10-50% increase in COVID-19 cases during the past week vs. the previous week, according to CNN.
Every single Big Ten football game this weekend will be hosted in a state with significantly rising coronavirus cases or the visiting team will have traveled from a state with significantly rising coronavirus cases.
Itās not some miracle that Northwestern and the Big Ten are playing football this weekend. Itās a clear and obvious money grab.
Again, the only articulation for how I might feel during Northwesternās game while knowing this information is that Iām going to be uneasy. I am hopeful the Big Ten can pull this off.
Hell, I want to watch this offensively challenged team.
Itās just that Iāll be watching with this context in mind.
With that, letās blame some things.
šµBlameĀ optimism
Letās start with the good ā and the biggest unknown: new offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian.
So what does āa 23% increase in per play eff[iciency]ā actually look like? Using ESPNās offensive efficiency metric (ābased on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basisā while weighing for schedule strength and taking out garbage time), Northwestern finished last year with a rating of 23.5.
An increase of 23% (via @cfb_professor) would put Northwestern on par with a pretty interesting team from last year ā¦ Maryland.
Yes, Maryland went 3-9. So did Northwestern. And theyāll meet up Saturday.
So why does this make me optimistic? I think a 23% increase in per play efficiency would be a relatively low mark when looking at Bajakianās Boston College offense from last season. Keep in mind, recruiting levels for both units were fairly even.
When you compare the advanced stats measuring what happened when Northwestern had the ball last season versus what happened when BC had the ball, a modest 23% increase in efficiency would be a disappointment. Boston Collegeās offense operated at a top 50-ish level nationally last season, according to Football Outsidersā offense ratings from 2019, while Northwestern was No. 124.
My prediction for the season: Northwestern finishes as a top 70-ish offense. Thatās about where the 2017 team finished, when Northwestern went 10-3.
My prediction for Saturday: Northwestern wins 27-23.
šµBlameĀ pessimism
Letās get something straight ā¦ Northwestern wonāt be as good as they were in 2017. But how good will they be? I donāt really know.
Peyton Ramsey is ā¦ fine. A true freshman at left tackle is ā¦ scary but I mean I think the kidās got to be pretty freakinā good to win that job. The defense is ā¦ pretty good but Iām a little worried with Travis Whillock and Samdup Miller opting out.
My *super* bold prediction for the season: 4-4.
Check outā¦
This video:
Teddy Greenstein, who has covered Northwestern extensively for the Chicago Tribune, has moved on from the paper. Congrats and good luck.
These season preview packages from Inside NU, the Daily Northwestern, WNUR Sports, and North by Northwestern. (It hasnāt been easy for these journalists to cover a team via Zoom, but theyāve gotten creative and you should definitely check out their work all season long.)
Olā pal Ben Goren is back with an opus previewing Northwesternās season.
Spencer Hall ranked Big Ten schools by annoyance. Hereās a snippet from Northwesternās spot:
Thatās where weāll end things this week. Thanks for sticking with another edition ofĀ šµBlame the Phones.
Hopefully, Iāll be back in your inbox next week.
Please let me know if you have any questions or ideas. Iād love to hear them.
Take care and, remember, you donāt have to watch this,
Josh Rosenblat
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