What’s up, everyone?
📵Blame the Phones is back this week with a look at the football team and the men’s and women’s hoops teams. Two of those seasons are going well (or seem to be) … one isn’t. (I’m assuming you know to which teams I’m referring. If not, read on to find out!)
Let’s blame some things.
📵Blame the Big Ten
Well, it’s official. Northwestern will play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game next Saturday. (Or, at least that’s what the schedule says.)
There was a lot of drama this week with OSU getting awarded the East division crown despite not meeting the Big Ten’s original requirements for title game eligibility.
ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg recaps all the proceedings here.
My take on this is simple: bring it.
Northwestern will probably roll out some half-assed version of their first team this weekend against Illinois (this is based on what Pat Fitzgerald did two years ago after the Big Ten West was won early).
Ohio State will probably beat Northwestern, just like it did two years ago. But that 2018 Big Ten championship game was fun. Really fun.
After three quarters, Northwestern was in that game, down just 10 points. It ended in a 21-point defeat, but it felt good to have the country focused on Northwestern, even just for those three-and-a-half hours.
Let’s do it again.
📵Blame second halves
If you’ve seen it once, you’ve seen it a thousand times.
The Northwestern men’s basketball team, again, grabbed a defeat from the jaws of victory this week against Pitt. And, like so many losses over the past few seasons, the Wildcats were in control late in the second half. In fact, Pitt’s first lead of the game came on its game-winning dunk with just 7 seconds left.
It was an ugly game, with both teams launching brick after brick in the first half. Northwestern, somehow, made enough shots to take an 11-point lead into halftime.
Pitt began to find a rhythm in the second half, closing the gap. Ryan Young gave Northwestern a spark off the bench and Boo Buie was impactful as a driver, leading the Wildcats to answer each Pitt run.
With about 4:20 left in the game, Buie hit a three to put Northwestern up 64-55. At that point, Northwestern’s win expectancy peaked at 93.1%, according to ESPN.
After that three, Pittsburgh then got points on seven of its final nine offensive trips.
Even so, Northwestern had the ball, up 3, with 35 seconds left. Pitt had to press. And, the defining play of Northwestern’s collapse happened.
Before we get to that, let’s check in on Pitt’s press with 1:55 left in the game.
Pete Nance gets the ball into Buie, who’s quickly doubled. He stays back, helping his guard and Northwestern breaks Pitt’s pressure. Miller Kopp hits a jumper after running down the shot clock, putting Northwestern up 5.
Now, let’s check in on Northwestern up 3 with 35 seconds left.
Pitt’s increasing their pressure, understandably. They’re in desperation mode. And their goal appears clear: trap, hope for a steal or foul on the first pass.
Here’s how Northwestern set up:
Chase Audige, Kopp, and Buie are the targets here. Ryan Young, a non-ballhandler and screener, is also in the game (which is an entirely different conversation). Instead of using Young as a screener, Chris Collins has him run the floor after a back screen from Kopp. Pitt stays with Kopp after his screen, allowing Young to run free. Nance seems to see him, but hesitates. No one’s back for Pitt. Nance holds the ball.
Nance then gets the ball into Buie, presumably the number one option. And that’s where this press break gets confusing.
Northwestern starts from a spread formation (good!). But once the ball is inbounded, the floor gets extremely condensed, giving Pitt a huge advantage by having them cover an extremely small area of the court.
Young and his defender are down at the other end of the court. But the other eight players on the floor are all within a 20-foot-by-12-foot rectangle. When Pitt immediately doubles Buie, they’re able to cover Northwestern’s other three players easily with just two defenders.
Buie’s doubled and picks up his dribble. Kopp flares toward half court to space, which is fine. Audige spaces to the other side of the floor. Things seem to be working OK.
That’s until Nance seems to make a major mishap here. As I showed earlier, Nance did a nice job staying with Buie to help him break a press. This time, though, Nance abandons Buie, leaving him out to dry, with no angle to pass out of the double team.
Pitt gets the steal, makes a layup, and Buie points at Nance seemingly asking him why he didn’t stay back.
It’s a one-point game.
Northwestern breaks the next Pitt press (Nance stays back, collects a return pass under the hoop from Kopp) and Buie is fouled. He misses two free throws. Pitt gets a dunk. Northwestern can’t get a good look at the buzzer. Collapse complete.
I’ve written about Northwestern’s second-half collapses a lot because, well, they seem to happen a lot.
Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Northwestern has played 75 games against major conference opponents, with a record, by my count, of 19-56.
Northwestern has had been tied or has had the halftime lead in 30 of those games (including the game against Pitt). They have won just 12 of those games, according to my research.
Northwestern is 12-18 since 2017-18 against major conference teams when not losing at halftime.
When leading or tied at halftime, Northwestern has lost the second halves by an average of 6.3 points per game (after leading by an average of about 7 points per game in the first half) since the 2017-18 season.
What’s the deal? Is it Collins’ scheme? Is it fitness? Is it teams making great halftime adjustments? Is it just bad luck?
📵Blame replacing production
The No. 17 Northwestern women’s basketball team got its season started this week with a 93-57 win over Eastern Illinois.
The Wildcats got off to a quick start, thanks to a 26-6 second quarter, before cruising to the win.
Coming off a Big Ten championship in the 2019-20 season, this is still a talented and experienced squad. The team lost two starters from last year’s team (center Abbie Wolf and sharpshooter Abi Scheid). Wolf and Scheid provided a lot of size for the Wildcats as Joe McKeown has opted for a smaller lineup (at least against EIU).
But that lineup is still really talented, led by All-Big Ten first team guard Lindsey Pulliam, a senior, and Big Ten defensive player of the year Veronica Burton, a junior.
Pulliam’s game expanded last season with a huge improvement from deep. In her first two years in Evanston, the volume scorer was able to put the ball in the bucket, but did so while shooting 23% and 18% from three. Last season, she bumped that percentage up to 35% while improving her scoring average to nearly 19 points per game. Now a senior, expect her to be in player of the year conversations in the Big Ten.
Burton is a game-wrecker. She’s smart, athletic, and relentless. But it’s about more than the three steals per game she posted last season. She’s a key part of Northwestern’s offense. As the team’s primary facilitator, she dished out over five assists per game while dropping nearly 12 points per contest.
Sydney Wood is the other returning starter from last year’s title-winning team. A secondary distributor alongside Burton, Wood just isn’t a shooter. She seemed to take on a bit more of an offensive load against EIU. Could it be a sign of things to come for the junior?
Jordan Hamilton is looking to finish her Northwestern career strong after starting all but one game during her first and second years in Evanston. Last season, though, Hamilton came off the bench in all but one game. Her minutes dropped from 29 to 19 and her shooting fell across the board.
Courtney Shaw is an interior player who came off the bench a season ago, averaging about 12 minutes per game. Shaw will be the top player to try to replace Wolf’s 11 points and seven rebounds per game.
A main key for this team: where will an outside threat come from? Scheid was an All-Big Ten first-teamer who was second in the nation in three-point shooting last season. She hit nearly 48% of her threes on over five attempts per game.
Is Burton ready to make the leap to become a reliable three-point shooter? Can Pulliam continue to improve? Can Hamilton and Wood step into that void?
The Wildcats open Big Ten play against Minnesota on Monday. Catch it on BTN.
Check out…
From William Karmin of Inside NU: Five best moments from the Northwestern-Illinois rivalry over the past decade
From Peter Warren of the Daily Northwestern: How Northwestern returned to the top of the Big Ten West in 2020
From Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports: If Bears move on from Matt Nagy as head coach this offseason, they will target Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald
From Matt Fortuna of the Athletic: Freshman Peter Skoronski is answering Northwestern’s biggest preseason question
From the Inside NU’s staff: Northwestern women’s basketball 2020-2021 season predictions
That’s where we’ll end things this week. Thanks for sticking with another edition of 📵Blame the Phones.
Hopefully, I’ll be back in your inbox next week.
Please let me know if you have any questions or ideas. I’d love to hear them.
Take care,
Josh Rosenblat