The Northwestern men’s basketball team is very bad. The team is not fun to watch. The team is certainly not fun to write about, nor is it particularly fun to read about. So, the bulk of this newsletter is going to be a midseason, tiered ranking exercise of the Big Ten’s men’s teams.
After that, I’ll share a quick note on Northwestern’s brutal second halves this season.
And, like dessert, I’ll save best for last. The women’s team continues to chug along.
With that, let’s blame some things.
📵Blame the rankings
Nearly every Big Ten men’s team has played at least 10 of their 20 conference games this season. After suffering through at least one-and-a-half Nebraska games, I think that makes me qualified to rank these teams. Because these tiers are completely subjective and up to my standards, they’re based on a lot of things. Mostly, I looked at the teams’ advanced stats since Jan. 1. I also considered pre-Jan. 1 play, the talent of individual players, coaching, and their watchability. Please yell at me and forward this to all your friends who are Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan fans. :) (All stats are from Barttorvik.com.)
Tier 1: Pretty sure they’re good
Michigan State Spartans, 16-5 (8-2 Big Ten)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 3rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, 1st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
After eviscerating Minnesota and Northwestern this week, the Spartans are back. They’re looking good heading into the back half of their schedule, which sets up to be more difficult than the slate they’ve faced so far, with two games each against Maryland and Penn State, plus a visit to Illinois standing out. I think it’s a pretty safe bet they’ll be a top-10 team in the country by the end of the regular season.
Tier 2: Stat test ✅, eye test ✅
Maryland Terrapins, 17-4 (7-3)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 2nd in ADJOE, 6th in ADJDE
Jalen Smith and Anthony Cowan Jr. have stepped up big in conference play. A couple stumbles in back-to-back road games against Iowa and Wisconsin earlier this month set the Terps back a bit. But, since then, they’ve pulled out four wins in a row. They have a big week coming up: they host Rutgers on Tuesday and go to Illinois on Friday.
Illinois Fighting Illini, 16-5 (8-2)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 4th in ADJOE, 3rd in ADJDE
Overall this season, freshman big man Kofi Cockburn has been Illinois’ highest-usage player. But looking at Big Ten play specifically, the Illini have begun leaning on star guard Ayo Dosunmu more. And if Illinois keeps winning, Dosunmu could end wind up as a first team all-conference selection. In eight games in 2020, he’s averaged 35 minutes, 5 boards, 4 assists, and 17 points per contest. Illinois is on a seven-game win streak.
Tier 3: Defense first
Penn State, 15-5 (5-4)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 6th in ADJOE, 4th in ADJDE
Pat Chambers is actually good? Maybe. Maybe not. Regardless, Lamar Stevens is this year’s Aaron Craft (the player you can’t believe is still in college), and he’s been a high-usage offensive player for Penn State, which is a bit of a change from what Chambers’ better teams have been. Offensively, they’ve been guard-led attacks. This year, Stevens gives them a different feel on that end of the floor as a six-foot-eight forward. Defensively, the Nittany Lions are playing like a top-20 team nationally. Can their offense hold up?
Rutgers, 16-5 (7-3)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 8th in ADJOE, 2nd in ADJDE
BartTorvik.com has Rutgers as it’s No. 11 team in the country this season. NUMBER 11. Coach Steve Pikiell has improved this team each season he’s been at Rutgers. But this is a masterpiece, by his standards. Rutgers, statistically, has one of the best defenses in the country. But, like Penn State, I don’t totally trust them on the offensive side of the ball. If high-usage guard Jacob Young ups his efficiency, though, count me in on this team moving forward. (Wow, I can’t believe I just typed that about Rutgers.)
Tier 4: Offense first
Iowa, 15-6 (6-4)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 1st in ADJOE, 12th in ADJDE
Over the course of the season, Iowa ranks No. 4 nationally in offensive efficiency, according to Barttorvik.com. The reason: center Luka Garza. I remember a time when people really thought Northwestern had a shot to grab the big man as a recruit. He’s been one of the most dominant players in the nation this season. Since Jan. 1, he’s averaging over 25 points per game, and has only scored fewer than 20 points once. He’s unstoppable on the block and is starting to step out more from deep. Iowa doesn’t give teams much resistance on the other end, though.
Minnesota, 11-10 (5-6)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 7th in ADJOE, 10th in ADJDE
As I write this, I think I might have Minnesota ranked too high. Despite a tough stretch (at Rutgers, at Ohio State, vs. Michigan State, at Illinois) that saw the Gophers go 1-3, I still believe. They have a five-game stretch on tap where they avoid the top 3 teams in the conference (MSU, Illinois, Maryland). Go 4-1 and you prove me right.
Tier 5: Defense first, lite
Purdue, 11-10 (4-6)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 9th in ADJOE, 7th in ADJDE
Purdue should be better, right? I like their coach. I like their players. But, like, they have to win a Big Ten road game at some point, right? Their ceiling’s pretty high. Look at that OT loss to Florida State and the clubbing of both Virginia and Michigan State earlier this season.
Indiana, 15-6 (5-5)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 14th in ADJOE, 5th in ADJDE
Please utilize freshman Trayce Jackson-Davis’ offensive skillset more in Big Ten games and maybe you wouldn’t be in last place in offense in the conference since Jan. 1. Ten shots per game should be the minimum.
Wisconsin, 12-9 (5-5)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 10th in ADJOE, 8th in ADJDE
Brad Davison is the worst.
Tier 6: WTF??
Michigan, 12-8 (3-6)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 5th in ADJOE, 11th in ADJDE
Remember when this was going to be a rebuilding transitional year for Michigan? Well, it turns out the conventional wisdom might’ve been right all along. I would, though, buy low on the Wolverines. Their offense, especially when Isaiah Livers plays, has still been really good despite their horrible 5-8 run since November.
Ohio State, 13-7 (3-6)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 13th in ADJOE, 9th in ADJDE
Some of these losses haven’t really been close. I mean, at least Michigan has choked away a few over the last month.
Tier 7: Bad, bad
Nebraska, 7-14 (2-8)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 11th in ADJOE, 14th in ADJDE
How has Nebraska beaten Purdue(!) and Iowa(!!)?
Northwestern, 6-14 (1-9)
Advanced stat ranks since Jan. 1: 12th in ADJOE, 13th in ADJDE
Northwestern has only beat Nebraska. But the ‘Huskers, to be completely honest, aren’t nearly as frustrating to watch as Northwestern.
📵Blame second halves
Now’s the time to reveal Northwestern’s second-half +/- stats.
This season, Northwestern is +21 in first halves. In second halves, the team is -74. They have not outscored an opponent in the second half of a game since the 67-66 loss to Hartford on Dec. 29.
In Big Ten play, Northwestern has been bad in both halves. But the disparity is pretty remarkable. In first halves, Northwestern is -17 through 10 conference games. In second halves, they’re -79. They’ve outscored their opponents just once in those games in the second half, a five-point loss to Michigan State at home.
📵Blame bad basketball
Everyone tells me how nice the new Welsh-Ryan Arena is. (I haven’t been.)
Apparently, I’ve talked to everyone who has been to a Northwestern game this season.
📵Blame B.A.U.
I was in a meeting at my job once and someone said, “Things are B.A.U. on our end.”
I asked what that meant and everyone looked at me weird. The speaker said, “Business as usual.”
Why do we need an acronym for that?
Alas, I digress.
The Northwestern’s women’s team went 1-1 this week. They lost a rematch at No. 17 Maryland, and took care of business at home against a decent Michigan team.
B.A.U.
This week, Northwestern’s plays teams with a combined record of 5-15 in Big Ten play. And they have an opportunity to go on a run.
Northwestern will not see a currently ranked team on its schedule the rest of the season. While Rutgers, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Michigan are all solid, the Wildcats have a real chance to make up for that loss to Iowa earlier this month.
The first-place Hawkeyes are 9-1 and have a 1 game lead on both Northwestern and Maryland. They still have games at Michigan, at Purdue, at Maryland, and at Rutgers. Maryland also looks to have a tougher schedule with games against No. 20 Indiana and Iowa still to come.
BONUS: (via The Daily Northwestern’s Ella Brockway) players on the team went viral on TikTok for this video.
But coach Joe McKeown doesn’t seem that impressed.
That’s where we’ll end things this week. Thanks for sticking with another edition of 📵Blame the Phones.
And remember, if you want to be one my bag people, it’s here.
Please let me know if you have any questions or ideas. I’d love to hear them.
Take care,
Josh Rosenblat